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Recognized in many circumstances – military, political, aviation – the phrase “point of no return (PNR)” is used to indicate a time and position that, when breached, does not allow safe and practical reversal. Once a decision has been made in such situations, the consequences are determined, even if they may be modified in severity.
The current pandemic has rapidly progressed to critical and fatal proportions for a significant percentage of our population even as hope through vaccines and treatment modalities have emerged. Beyond health concerns lies the economic toll on our communities. Some businesses have succumbed while others persevere but are in dire need of support to sustain a modicum of commerce. Most economic sectors – public and private – have spent the past year under a cloud of uncertainty. Along with the damage to startup entrepreneurs and established entities alike, individuals have shared the same fate.
Currently, we have reached our PNR with COVID-19 and the societal stress incurred. There is no choice but to stay on course, employ protective tactics and trust the resilience of human ingenuity to confront the challenge. In aeronautical terms, it is undesirable and dangerous to attempt landing anywhere besides the original destination. In this case, control and/or eradication of the virus. Several vaccines are welcome additional protection, yet not a total panacea. Continued adherence to health protocols will be with us for the foreseeable future and, just as people adjusted to seat belt restraints in automobiles, we will adjust.
Along with personal and business constraints, governmental constriction is also notable. The Great Recession (2007-2009) taught several lessons that have helped the public sector in the current pandemic crisis. Reserves and “rainy day funds” have been instrumental in retention of services, but are not inexhaustible. As municipalities, schools and other public institutions slowly rebound with control of the virus, the new “normal” will not be business as usual. Instead, some restrictions and attitudinal changes will remain as they did for the generations that suffered through the 2008 Great Recession and Great Depression that began in October 1929 and continued through the 1930s.
Behavioral patterns have emerged from such experiences. Trust in institutions and government erodes if constituents are asked to ignore personal experience in favor of rosy predictions [Hoover claims the worst is over in 1930, Trump often declares the virus will disappear in 2020]. As a result, cynicism runs rampant until a clear and honest explanation and remedy is given for past failures. State and local governments have, so far, operated in basically pre-Covid fashion, albeit on a remote, virtual basis. Mass municipal layoffs have been avoided. However, the question remains of when government institutions will reach their financial PNR. Cash flow from national coffers is disputed and may or may not be released in adequate amounts to stem and reverse the drain of local resources. With the Great Recession only a little over a decade ago, the lessons learned and followed will be evident as the recovery phase of this crisis begins (hopefully) later this year.
Government revenue loss will not be measured within discrete and distinct economic sectors. The effects of COVID-19, while boosting some businesses, has decimated a much larger percentage of small and entrepreneurial endeavors. The cascading effect of this will impact individual and business tax returns that will add to the burden of a weak economy. Although we may have not reached our collective PNR, without a concerted effort to stem the tide of this virus – masks, social distancing, vaccination, personal hygiene – it could materialize. With determination and a concerted societal response, we can and will use the rearview mirror to recall these days too.
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