The chicken or the egg
An oft posed conundrum that has persisted is the question of which comes first… the chicken or the egg? The answer is clouded by the genesis of each. Without a chicken, there can be no egg. But, without an egg, there can be no chicken? How can the cause and effect be determined? Circular arguments such as this depend on both elements existing simultaneously.
A partial answer to a similar dilemma was suggested in the 1989 film, Field of Dreams in which Ray Kinsella, an Iowa farmer, responds to a desire to honor his late father, a devoted baseball fan, a vision and a mysterious whisper of advice… “If you build it, they will come.” Risking financial ruin, he follows the directive, builds a baseball field in the midst of his corn crop and “Shoeless” Joe Jackson along with other baseball players from the past emerge from the cornfield to enjoy the new field. On the brink of losing his farm to bank foreclosure, the film ends as a stream of headlights approach indicating financial relief from those who want to visit the Field of Dreams.
Whether considering the existential egg dilemma or fantasy cornfield quandary, there are circumstances where it is appropriate to ask a question of what should come first. Is there a logical progression in which the order of action can dictate sensible priorities? City planning is often faced with similar decisions when tasked with directing the speed, direction, type and style of growth required by internal and external demands. Trying to balance a vision of the future with realities of the present is daunting and often contradictory.
The Osgood Road corridor in Fremont is a good example of such a scenario. The anticipated BART station in the Irvington District of Fremont remains a unfulfilled promise that has nonetheless prompted use of Transit Oriented Development funding and subsequent housing production. Without a BART station that may be ill advised due to its location, residents are isolated from easy access to public transit and other amenities.
However, in a recent review of affordable housing production, Fremont touted construction on Osgood Road as a major contributor to its RHNA [Regional Housing Needs Allocation] numbers. The theory is that occupants of such facilities will be close to amenities and regional transit so work and daily needs are within walking distance. Therefore, there is less need for cars and parking spaces for them. However, with no BART station and few other alternatives to automobile transportation, what practical solutions does a current occupant have?
We come back to the classic chicken or egg problem. Is it better to build housing, especially affordable housing with relaxed regulations, in anticipation of future amenities or wait for assured production of those amenities? What will residents do in the meantime to compensate for lack of services?